Most Americans will receive Social Security and Medicare benefits at some point during their lives. For this reason, workers and retirees are concerned about potential program shortfalls that could affect future benefits. Each year, the trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust Funds release lengthy annual reports to Congress that assess the health of these important programs. The newest reports, released on June 5, 2018, discuss the current financial condition and ongoing financial challenges that both programs face, and project a Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2019.
What are the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds?
Social Security: The Social Security program consists of two parts. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program. The combined programs are referred to as OASDI. Each program has a financial account (a trust fund) that holds the Social Security payroll taxes that are collected to pay Social Security benefits. Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation) is also deposited in these accounts. Money that is not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs is invested (by law) in special Treasury bonds that are guaranteed by the U.S. government and earn interest. As a result, the Social Security Trust Funds have built up reserves that can be used to cover benefit obligations if payroll tax income is insufficient to pay full benefits.
Note that the trustees provide certain projections based on the combined OASI and DI(OASDI) trust funds. However, these projections are theoretical, because the trusts are separate, and generally one program’s taxes and reserves cannot be used to fund the other program.
Medicare: There are two Medicare trust funds. The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund helps pay for hospital care (Medicare Part A costs). The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) trust Fund comprises two separate accounts, one covering Medicare Part B (which helps pay for physician and outpatient costs) and one covering Medicare Part D (which helps cover the prescription drug benefit).
Highlights of Social Security Trustees Report
This year, for the first time since 1982, Social Security’s total cost is projected to exceed its total income (including interest) and remain higher for the next 75 years. Consequently, the U.S. treasury will start withdrawing from trust fund reserves to help pay benefits in 2018. The trustees project that the combined trust fund reserves (OASDI) will be depleted in 2034, the same year projected in last year’s report, unless Congress acts.
Once the combined trust fund reserves are depleted, payroll tax revenue alone should still be sufficient to pay about 79 percent of scheduled benefits for 2034, with the percentage falling gradually to 74 percent by 2092.
Based on the intermediate assumptions in this year’s report, the Social Security Administration is projecting that the cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) announced in the fall of 2018, will be 2.4 percent. The COLA would apply to benefits starting in January 2018.
Highlights of Medicare Trustees Report
Annual costs for the Medicare program exceeded tax income each year from 2008 to 2015. Although last year’s report projected surpluses in 2016 through 2022, this year’s report projects that costs will exceed income (excluding interest income) in 2018.
The HI trust fund is projected to be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than projected last year. Once the HI trust fund is depleted, tax and premium income would still cover 91 percent of estimated program costs, declining to 78 percent by 2042 and then gradually increasing to 85 percent by 2092. The Trustees note that long-range projection of Medicare costs are highly uncertain.
Why are Social Security and Medicare facing financial challenges?
Social security and Medicare are funded primarily through the collection of payroll taxes. Because of demographic and economic factors including higher retirement rates and lower birth rates, there will be fewer workers per beneficiary over the long term, worsening the strain on trust funds.
What is being done to address these challenges?
Both reports urge Congress to address the financial challenges facing these programs soon, so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually, lessening the impact on the public.
You can view a combined summary of the 2018 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports and a full copy of the Social Security report at ssa.gov. You can find the full Medicare report at cms.gov.
From "Amy & Dan Smith's Planning for Life" column appearing monthly in the Blue Ridge Leader, Loudoun County, VA.
The foregoing article contains general legal information only and is not intended to convey legal advice. For legal advice regarding estate planning, the reader should contact his/her lawyer.
Daniel D. Smith is a partner in the law firm of Smith & Pugh, PLC, 161 Fort Evans Road, NE, Suite 345, Leesburg, VA 20176. (Tel: 703-777-6084, www.smithpugh.com).
Amy V. Smith Wealth Management, LLC is an independent firm. Amy V. Smith, CFP, CIMA offers securities through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Her office is located at 161 Fort Evans Road, NE, Suite 345, Leesburg, VA 20176. (Tel: 703-669-5022, www.amysmithwealthmanagement.com). Any opinions are those of Amy and Dan Smith and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete and does not provide legal advice. Dan Smith is not affiliated with Raymond James.